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USAU Ranking Approximations: BYU, Cincinnati In For Men’s; No Bid Changes For Women’s

Cincinnati?!

BYU's Jason McKeen at the Northwest Challenge. Photo: BYU Ultimate's Facebook page.
BYU’s Jason McKeen at the Northwest Challenge. Photo: BYU Ultimate’s Facebook page.

Ultiworld’s Cody Mills has put together a statistical tool to approximate the USA Ultimate rankings by using publicly available score data and applying the algorithm that USA Ultimate uses to run their numbers. While the results below are unofficial and could include some scores which are liable to be altered or removed from the official rankings, they are a good representation of the what the current rankings would look like.

Throughout the remainder of the college season, we will be running this USAU ranking approximation and, later, applying different algorithms and/or ranking methods to test possible alternatives to the existing algorithm.

For more information about the USA Ultimate algorithm, ranking system, and some of its perceived flaws, see this FAQ from last year.

Men’s Division

The rankings below include only teams with at least five sanctioned games.

RankTeamRegionRating
#1MassachusettsNE2262.33
#2WisconsinNC2187.19
#3MinnesotaNC2140.94
#4OregonNW2135.99
#5PittsburghOV2082.97
#6StanfordSW2071.36
#7North Carolina-WilmingtonAC2040.01
#8FloridaSE2018.53
#9North CarolinaAC1989.19
#10HarvardNE1963.16
#11WashingtonNW1957.59
#12GeorgiaSE1924.53
#13ColoradoSC1919.85
#14Carleton CollegeNC1915.58
#15British ColumbiaNW1906.24
#16Brigham YoungNW1899.56
#17Texas A&MSC1867.84
#18CincinnatiOV1814.99
#19Cal Poly-SLOSW1814.07
#20Texas ChristianSC1813.23
#21TexasSC1790.45
#22Florida StateSE1783.78
#23California-Santa BarbaraSW1775.42
#24Virginia TechAC1769.59
#25AuburnSE1759.04
#26Colorado StateSC1758.29
#27MichiganGL1754.28
#28ArkansasSC1745.18
#29VictoriaNW1740.62
#30TulaneSE1734.30
#31Ohio StateOV1734.20
#32Central FloridaSE1726.32
#33LSUSE1720.17
#34PurdueGL1719.81
#35Western WashingtonNW1696.00
#36ConnecticutME1693.51
#37California-San DiegoSW1685.34
#38Oregon StateNW1676.20
#39James MadisonAC1675.91
#40MissouriSC1674.17
#41ArizonaSW1653.63
#42Georgia TechSE1647.39
#43BrownNE1647.02
#44Case Western ReserveOV1635.17
#45UtahNW1622.72
#46Virginia CommonwealthAC1616.77
#47MarylandAC1603.89
#48George WashingtonAC1596.68
#49North Carolina StateAC1595.80
#50John BrownSC1551.26

Implied Bid Allocation

Atlantic Coast: 2 bids
Great Lakes: 1 bid
Metro East: 1 bid
New England: 2 bids
North Central: 3 bids
Northwest: 4 bids
Ohio Valley: 2 bids (+1)
South Central: 2 bids
Southeast: 2 bids
Southwest: 1 bid (-1)

Discussion

As expected, BYU’s strong weekend at the Northwest Challenge has vaulted them into bid-earning range at #16 after they got wins over three teams (Washington, UBC, and Victoria) ranked above them. However, it’s no net gain for the Northwest, as Victoria slipped to #29 after a so-so weekend; their high ranking was resting entirely on a handful of games from the Santa Barbara Invite back in January. Of course, bigger questions have to be answered about BYU and the Northwest at this point. Will they be accommodated to compete at Regionals? If not, will the Northwest keep the bid, or will it fall to the ‘next team up?’ It seems most plausible that USA Ultimate will allow the Northwest teams and Regional Coordinator to decide what to do — and they may have a big incentive (an extra bid) to find a way to get BYU involved. More to come on this story.

The other big news from this week: Cincinnati is currently a bid earner! An early season 13-5 win over BYU is floating Cincinnati, much like last year when an early win over Tulane kept them high in the rankings for the entire season. Cincinnati has just one tournament left: Huck Finn!

But this year there’s no chance of them ducking out. Not only is there an explicit rule against late dropouts for bid purposes now on the books, they are also short of the 10 sanctioned games required to be included in the final rankings.

With Cincinnati sitting at #18, they will have an exceptional opportunity to earn a second bid for the Ohio Valley in St. Louis this weekend. They will have to vie with teams like #19 Cal Poly SLO at Huck Finn (and #21 Texas at Centex) for the final bid. We essentially a “play-in weekend” for the last bid to Nationals. Exciting!

Women’s Division

The rankings below include only teams with at least five sanctioned games.

RankTeamRegionRating
#1British ColumbiaNW2343.91
#2OregonNW2301.71
#3StanfordSW2226.68
#4WhitmanNW2212.86
#5Central FloridaSE2211.56
#6TexasSC2050.61
#7WashingtonNW2016.60
#8UCLASW2014.62
#9MichiganGL1982.14
#10ColoradoSC1936.59
#11PittsburghOV1935.38
#12CaliforniaSW1908.26
#13Western WashingtonNW1902.66
#14MinnesotaNC1848.05
#15Ohio StateOV1830.59
#16VirginiaAC1806.04
#17Colorado CollegeSC1803.84
#18California-DavisSW1793.76
#19California-San DiegoSW1768.52
#20VermontNE1756.62
#21WisconsinNC1750.33
#22NortheasternNE1723.86
#23Penn StateOV1695.55
#24TuftsNE1689.02
#25North Carolina-WilmingtonAC1683.29
#26MarylandAC1680.85
#27Notre DameGL1670.75
#28KansasSC1668.56
#29North CarolinaAC1657.93
#30Florida StateSE1652.67
#31Southern CaliforniaSW1630.78
#32DartmouthNE1597.28
#33Iowa StateNC1588.81
#34LibertyAC1552.98
#35VictoriaNW1505.54
#36DelawareAC1499.54
#37Georgia TechSE1494.42
#38Loyola-ChicagoGL1492.02
#39DenverSC1491.51
#40BowdoinNE1454.47
#41Texas StateSC1438.02
#42Carleton CollegeNC1433.87
#43FloridaNE1427.33
#44NorthwesternGL1406.05
#45Boston CollegeNE1396.81
#46Truman StateSC1390.68
#47HarvardNE1390.50
#48ValparaisoGL1389.43
#49California-IrvineSW1382.84
#50Case Western ReserveOV1368.03

Implied Bid Allocation

Atlantic Coast: 1 bid
Great Lakes: 1 bid
Metro East: 1 bid
New England: 1 bid
North Central: 1 bid
Northwest: 5 bids
Ohio Valley: 2 bids
South Central: 3 bids
Southeast: 1 bid
Southwest: 4 bids

Discussion

There’s a mere week remaining in the regular season and the dust is settling. Northwest Challenge put UC Davis in a tough spot in Tier II and they didn’t manage it effectively — they had to blow out everyone on Saturday and didn’t do so — but they are still where they need to be for a Southwest bid. Western Washington solidified the Northwest’s fifth and final bid. Potentially the only variable bid is that final Southwest strength bid: Davis doesn’t have a huge advantage over Vermont (Northeast) or Wisconsin (North Central). Perhaps if some games are wiped out or scores are adjusted things could shift around in the late season.

As it sits, the west coast has been conquering. Nine of the total 20 bids (or, put differently, seven of the 10 strength bids) are likely headed to the Northwest and Southwest. The South Central’s trio of bids and Ohio Valley’s pair make up the only other multi-bid regions at this time.

  1. Charlie Eisenhood
    Charlie Eisenhood

    Charlie Eisenhood is the editor-in-chief of Ultiworld. You can reach him by email (charlie@ultiworld.com) or on Twitter (@ceisenhood).

  2. Keith Raynor
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    Keith Raynor is a Senior Editor and the Women's Coverage Coordinator at Ultiworld. He coaches Emory Luna, the college's women's team.

  3. Cody Mills
    Avatar

    Cody Mills is an Ultiworld contributor. He graduated from Stanford University and helps coach the Bloodthirsty team.

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